The Wisconsin Badgers are typically a big, physical team that likes to run the ball. The last time these teams met, Wisconsin ran the ball for 441 yards and rolled to a 55-20 win. They are 10-2 versus the Hoosiers and have won by an average of 26 points per game. In short, this series has not been kind to Indiana. Wisconsin destroyed Purdue 37-0 last week behind a 200-yard rushing edge. I have to be honest, this doesn't look good.
The Battle in the Trenches
I don't know if Indiana can do anything to stop what Wisconsin has done to their opponents nearly every game this season. The Badgers have a huge offensive line that pushes the front
seven around. John Clay, their big running back, leads the Big Ten with 839 rushing yards on the season and nearly five yards a carry. IU is going to need to keep the Badgers under 250 yards of rushing if they want to have a chance to pull off the upset. That means great tackling by the linebackers, defensive containment on the outside by Kirlew and Middleton, and penetration up the middle by the defensive tackles (Black, Mentzer and Replogle have all played well). It sounds easy. However, the Badgers have been able to run the ball on everyone except Iowa. Controlling the Ball
The best way to prevent the Wisconsin offense from grinding down the defense is to keep the ball. Indiana needs to control the time of possession and keep the Wisconsin defense on the field. The Badgers don't have one of their best defensive units. I would call them decent but not great. They gave up 28 to Minnesota and 30 to Michigan State. However, they did shut out Purdue. IU will need to run the ball well (again, give it to Willis as much as possible) and convert on third down. If the Hoosiers can win the time of possession battle, the Wisconsin running game won't be able to pound IU into submission.
Football Games Last 60 Minutes!
Indiana has played some great football this season. They dominated Northwestern for about 28 minutes. They drilled #4 Iowa for 35 minutes. However, they don't seem to realize that you need
to play 60 minutes to win. My theory, a losing mentality and a lack of depth combine to make a second-half collapse. It won't matter if IU jumps out to a 35-0 lead on Saturday, I won't believe they are going to hold on until the end of the game. The Hoosiers have been outscored 48-3 in the second half of the past two games. I don't see them blowing another huge lead because I don't see them getting another huge lead. They had their chance in the past two games to set themselves up for a 6, 7 or even 8 win season. Their hopes for a bowl game are down to winning two out of three (Wisconsin, at Penn State, Purdue) and that can't happen if they don't play 60 minutes every week. By the way, I think the team has their motto for the offseason training program (Play 60! or Finish Strong! something cheesy like that).Prediction
I think the Hoosiers will be able to stay with Wisconsin for most of the game. However, the physicality and size of the Wisconsin offense will begin to wear down on the IU front. The Badgers will run the ball effectively and pull away late for a 34-21 victory.
Bawa Muniru Update
Bawa Muniru, 7'0" freshman for the Indiana Hoosiers, has finally been cleared by the NCAA to play. He is very raw but extremely big and chiseled. I think Muniru will probably take Tijan
Jobe's place in the rotation and come off the bench for 5-8 minutes a game. Best case scenario for this year, he can provide some defense, rebounding and a dunk or two off the bench. In two years, he has developed into a 7'0" difference maker that can shut down the paint. Whatever the case, I am glad the glacial NCAA finally got around to doing their job. Quick Preview
There are a couple of marquee matchups this weekend in college football. The first takes place in Happy Valley as Terrelle Pryor returns to Pennsylvania as a Buckeye. He nearly chose Penn State but publicly said he didn't like how boring the area was. Ohio State's offense hasn't scored on a decent defense all season. Penn State's defense is much better than decent now that Sean Lee and Navarro Bowman are both healthy at linebacker. I don't see the Buckeyes offensive problems ending this week. Penn State wins 24-10. The other big game is the hate fest in
Tuscaloosa between Alabama and LSU. The Crimson Tide have had a week off to think about their poor play and near loss against Tennessee. LSU fans still "hate" Nick Saban (as in hate him for leaving us for the Dolphins because we wish he was still our coach) and the Tigers need a marquee victory to stay in the SEC title race. This is Alabama's last major hurdle to leap to reach the SEC title game and I think their bye week came at a perfect time. I guarantee an impressive performance from the Tide. Roll Tide, 27-13.
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