Taking Care of Business

The Indiana Hoosiers took care of North Carolina Central in routine fashion on Saturday, 81-58. The Hoosiers outscored NCC 45-25 in the second half after a sluggish opening 20 minutes. IU hadn't played in a week because of finals and it showed as they slogged through the first half against a bad team. I don't think anyone really feared IU would lose this one because North Carolina Central is really awful but it wasn't a sharp half. The second half saw some changes and Indiana could have set the score in the final stanza.

Mo Creek Leads the Way
Before the season began, I predicted Maurice Creek would lead this team in scoring. It looks like I will be right. I don't think anyone, including myself, would have predicted the numbers Creek is putting up. He scored 29 points on 12-17 shooting and grabbed seven rebounds in 27 minutes of playing time. Creek is now averaging 18.5 points a game. Tom Crean continues to insist that Creek is "just scratching the surface of his potential." A very minor concern for me, will the NBA come calling if he keeps this up?

Hulls Earns His Minutes
Jordan Hulls has shown flashes of what he can bring to the floor. On Saturday night, those flashes turned into a four and a half minute stretch that keyed the second half route. Hulls started the second half and had five points, a couple of rebounds and two nice assists before the first media timeout. Indiana pushed their lead and never looked back. The former Mr. Basketball ended up with 5 points, 7 rebounds and 8 assists. He also only turned the ball over one time in 22 minutes. I fully expect this type of performance in several games this season.

Next Up
The Hoosiers take on Loyola (MD) on Tuesday night and battle Bryant College on to end the non-conference schedule. Those should both be easy victories that will push Indiana to 7-5 entering the conference season. That's right about where they were expected to be. I expected them to win a game in Puerto Rico but I didn't think they would beat Pitt. So, take care or Loyola and Bryant and enter the grinder of the Big Ten with some confidence. Until next time, God Bless.

Looking Back

If you have been following this blog from the beginning, you know I made predictions for each conference. You can see those predictions by clicking on the archives (right side of the page) for August. I went back and looked at each conference to see how I did. Some conferences were closer than others but for the most part, I wasn't bad.

Big Ten
11. Indiana 11. Indiana
10. Purdue 10. Michigan
9. Northwestern 9. Illinois
8. Michigan 8. Minnesota
7. Minnesota 7. Purdue
6. Michigan State 6. Michigan State
5. Illinois 5. Wisconsin
4. Wisconsin 4. Northwestern
3. Iowa 3. Penn State
2. Ohio State 2. Iowa
1. Penn State 1. Ohio State

I seriously underestimated Pat Fitzgerald and the Northwestern Wildcats. They managed a fourth place finish, five spots higher than where I put them. I also called for a Penn State title. They never got things completely going and Ohio State deserved this championship. As for disappointments, Illinois and Michigan were atrocius. I called for Michigan to finish 5-7 but I didn't think would look as bad as they did. The heat is officially on Zook and Rodriguez.

SEC East
6. Kentucky 6. Vanderbilt
5. Vanderbilt 5. Kentucky
4. Tennessee 4. South Carolina
3. South Carolina 3. Georgia
2. Georgia 2. Tennessee
1. Florida 1. Florida
SEC West
6. Mississippi State 6. Mississippi State
5. Auburn 5. Auburn
4. Arkansas 4. Arkansas
3. LSU 3. Ole Miss
2. Ole Miss 2. LSU
1. Alabama 1. Alabama

To be fair, no one knew Georgia would play like zombies for most of the season. They were disappointing. Tennessee was a little better than I thought they would be but things shook out like I thought they would. I called for undefeated seasons from Florida and Bama. I also predicted that Ryan Mallett would have the best stats in the conference, I was right. He threw for nearly 700 yards more than anyone and had the most touchdown passes.

I was fairly close on the Big 12 South (minus Oklahoma). I picked Texas to go undefeated and compete in the title game. However, the Big 12 North was a disaster. I had Kansas first, they finished last. This was a really bad year for Mark Mangino! The ACC was also pretty good for me. I picked Clemson and Georgia Tech to win their divisions and they did. I also picked Florida State than anyone else I saw and they finished fourth in the Atlantic. The Pac-10 was pretty ugly for most people who were picking. Who could have predicted the downturn for the Trojans? I had them second but I didn't it would be Oregon to overtake them. I picked Cal and they disappointed me again. As for the Big East: "Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches in America and Tony Pike is one of the better quarterbacks. Cincinnati will go undefeated and represent the Big East in a BCS bowl for the second straight year. Brian Kelly will leave UC for greener pastures after this season." Yeah, I nailed that one.

The Indiana Hoosiers take on North Carolina Central tomorrow night on the Big Ten Network. There is no other way of putting this. Indiana should drill this team early and coast to an easy win. Actually, they should do that in their last three games before Big Ten play. NCC has played a tough schedule and haven't come that close to pulling off any upsets. They lost by ten at Iowa and by nine to Florida Gulf Coast. No analysis needed, just go out and get the win. The goal is to not have anyone get injured and develop some sort of confidence for Tom Pritchard. These are the kinds of teams he dominated last season. If he doesn't play well these next three games, he won't play well all year.

Until next time, have a great weekend and God Bless. Hope you enjoyed Tijan!!!!

IU Battles, Kentucky is Just Better

     I can take games like this...for now.  Indiana played one of the best halves they have played in quite some time and trailed Kentucky 42-41 at the break.  They hung with them through the first media timeout and Assembly Hall was rocking.  The next four or five minutes saw the bottom fall out and allowed Kentucky to reel off an 18-0 run and eventually walk away with a 90-73 victory.  IU played hard and they played pretty well.  Thing is, Kentucky is just a lot bigger, stronger and more talented right now.  

Maurice Creek is the Real Deal

For all of the hype about John Wall, well deserved and he is ridiculously talented, Kentucky did not have the best freshman on the floor Saturday.  Overall, John Wall, Eric Bledsoe and Damarcus Cousins are probably all better than Maurice Creek.  But on Saturday, Maurice Creek was the best freshman on the court.  Creek scored 31 points on 9-14 shooting and 8-8 FTs.  He also only had one turnover in 32 minutes of action.  John Calipari said after the game that Creek was the best player they had faced this season.  Keep in mind that his team has played North Carolina and UConn.  He has emerged as the number one threat for the Hoosiers.  Problem on Saturday?  No one else joined him in double figures.  

Size and Strength

I knew the Hoosiers would have a hard time rebounding against Kentucky.  UK averages 6'7" (tallest in the country) and IU was playing a zone.  But my goodness, they were outrebounded 49-24.  IU gave up 21 offensive rebounds!  This was the most glaring problem all game and there wasn't much IU could do about it.  Just get bigger and stronger and that doesn't happen overnight.  

Turnovers

Indiana has been taking care of the ball better and better every game.  They managed to only turn the ball over nine times against the pressure defense of the Wildcats.  If the Hoosiers can continue to take care of the ball like that, there is no doubt they will finish with more than one or two Big Ten wins.  

Big Picture

This season is still all about the big picture of IU basketball.  We know they won't be competing for an NCAA tournament berth.  At best, they will be around .500 (not likely).  You want to see progress and we are seeing that every game.  This was a good week.  Indiana beat an established Pittsburgh program in Madison Square Garden and hung around with the number four team in the country for 25 minutes on Saturday.  They need to play like that against the three lesser opponents they have coming up before the Big Ten season starts and go into conference play at 7-5.  Next up is North Carolina Central on Saturday.  Throughout this week, I will take a look back at how close my football predictions were.  Until next time, God Bless.

Marquee Win

I was wrong and I couldn't be any happier. I didn't think IU could handle a physical team like Pittsburgh. Not only did they handle the physicality, the Hoosiers were the tougher and more aggressive squad and they beat the Panthers 74-64 in Madison Square Garden. This was a huge victory and big step forward in the restoration process.

Limiting Turnovers
Indiana took care of the ball really well on Tuesday night. They didn't have very many mental lapses that resulted in dumb passes or careless mistakes. In total, IU had 12 turnovers. That number is inflated a little bit by the five turnovers they had in the last six minutes. They could have very easily been under 10! If the Hoosiers are able to limit their turnovers to around 12 a game, they are going to be very competitive in most of their contests this season.

Free Throw Advantage
IU used to make more free throws than their opponents attempted. That was the rule up until the late 90s. Tom Crean's uptempo and attacking style should get the Hoosiers back to something that resembles those numbers at the foul line. After some woeful free throw shooting in the first four games, Indiana has actually shot pretty well from the foul line. IU outscored Pitt by 13 points at the foul line. Ken Pomeroy is the king of college basketball statistics and one of his "Four Factors of Winning" is free throw rate. To find it, divide the number of free throws made by the number of field goal attempts. The number you get tells you the percentage of possessions that your team is getting to the line and making free throws. IU was pretty poor in this department against Maryland (37%) but had an astronomical leap against Pitt (63%). The other three factors are shooting efficiency, ball handling turnover % and offensive rebound %. Go to http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/help_with_team_page/ to see how stats tell the story and where each team ranks.

End Game
The last two minutes were a lot more stressful than they needed to be. I saw some images of complete collapses and I knew that if Pitt had a chance to beat IU with a buzzer beater, they probably would. However, the Hoosiers were able to get a hold of themselves and Pitt never really threatened.

Player of the Game
I thought there were a lot of guys that played well. Devan Dumes played his best game of the year. Jeremiah Rivers gutted through a pinched nerve in his back to lead the team, Tom Pritchard hit some lay-ups, Derek Elston was a beast in the first half, Christian Watford was very effective. However, the player of the game was Verdell Jones. Jones had 20 points, three assists and three blocks to lead the Hoosiers to the win. Perhaps the most impressive thing was that IU controlled this game while only hitting one three pointer (1-7 as a team). The Hoosiers beat Pittsburgh in the paint and on the foul line.

Great win! Until next time, God Bless.

IU vs. Pittsburgh

This is the second game of a very tough three-game stretch. IU played well but fell apart late against Maryland. They get Kentucky on Saturday. On Tuesday night, they take on the Pittsburgh Panthers, a number one seed in last year's NCAA tourney. Pitt is off to a very good start this season. They have a 7-1 record and their only loss came to #2 Texas. In my opinion, this is a bad matchup for the Hoosiers. As a program, Pittsburgh has three goals. They want to defend, rebound and be more physical than their opponent. Indiana doesn't do well against teams that make them run a half-court offense and they haven't shown the ability to play against a tough opponent. This one could get ugly.

Get to the Basket
IU is not going to be able to get a lot of fast break baskets. That is going to put them in a lot of half-court situations where they will need to find a way to get points. The best way to score is to attack the basket. You either finish or get fouled. For the offense to be successful against the Panthers, Jeremiah Rivers (if he's healthy), Verdell Jones, Maurice Creek, Jordan Hulls and Devan Dumes are going to have to get to the basket. IU can't afford missed layups or free throws in this one.


Be Tough
Pittsburgh always has a gritty and hard-nosed team. Tom Crean has been imploring his team to be tougher and meaner but he admits they just don't know how yet. I hope they have learned a little bit about it in the past week, if not, Pitt will beat them up. There is a lot of muscle on this Panthers squad and I don't know if Indiana is ready to compete with them in that department. They are going to need to be more physical tonight.

The Great Equalizer
The three-pointer can make or break a team's chances. I am not advocating 30 three-point attempts in this game. However, I think Indiana is going to have put up some threes and they need to shoot well from behind the arc to win. I don't want to put an arbitrary number on this but they will need to shoot it pretty well to hang around.

Player of the Game
Jermaine Dixon, Pitt's best returning player, might be coming back from a foot injury tonight. If he does, he might take this. Ashton Gibbs is currently their top scorer at 16 a game. I think Maurice Creek will have another nice game and he will be IU's best player. However, my pick for player of the game is Brad Wanamaker. Wanamaker is averaging 12 points and six rebounds. Rivers will be guarding Gibbs so Wanamaker might have more open looks.

Prediction
I hope I am wrong but this matchup looks awful for IU. Pitt by 15.

Another Game of the Century

We have been waiting for this matchup since the beginning of the season. Everyone had their doubts about whether or not this would come to fruition. Could Florida and Alabama both stay unbeaten throughout the regular season? Could they stay healthy? Could they survive everyone's best shot? The answers are yes, pretty much and just barely. These two teams didn't have to worry about style points or drilling their opponents. They both knew that if they won out, they would be the #1 team in the country and they would get a shot at the national title. Neither team has been impressive every week. Alabama nearly lost to Tennessee and Auburn. Florida was completely outplayed by Arkansas. But they both found a way to beat every opponent that was put in front of them. You want a playoff? This weekend is as close as you are going to get.

Predictions
I will be completely honest, I have no idea what is going to happen. However, one thing I learned last season and have not forgotten, don't pick against Tim Tebow. I see two really good defenses and call it a push. I give Alabama the edge at wide receiver because of Julio Jones. Florida has some good ones as well (Cooper, Hernandez) but they don't have a difference maker like Jones. I give Alabama the edge at running back because of Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson and Roy Upchurch. So, why pick Florida? They have the best college football leader I have ever seen, Tim Tebow. I just can't pick against somebody that refuses to lose. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Alabama won but I won't pick against Tebow. So, Florida wins 24-21 and Tebow leads them on the final drive to score the game-winning touchdown.

Heisman
The Heisman Trophy might be up for grabs on Saturday. I am seeing most of the projections have Tim Tebow as the leader. I love Tebow, but as of now, he doesn't deserve the Heisman. Tebow has thrown for 17 TDs and run for 13 while only throwing four picks. However, he only has 2,166 yards passing. Colt McCoy has thrown for 3,328 yards and 27 TDs. Toby Gerhart has run for 1,726 yards and 26 TDs. Mark Ingram has 1,429 yards and 12 TDs. If Tebow beats Alabama with a fantastic performance and some clutch plays, give him the trophy. Right now, if I were given a vote it would go as follows.
1. Gerhart
2. McCoy
3. Tebow
4. Kellen Moore (Boise State QB)
5. Ingram

Enjoy the final weekend of college football. Also on tap, Butler starts Horizon League play against Valparaiso on Saturday at 7 and Kentucky hosts North Carolina in a battle to see which young team is further along. Until next time, God Bless.

No Moral Victories

The Indiana Hoosiers fell to the Maryland Terrapins 80-68 on Tuesday night. I saw a lot of improvement and this was a game the Hoosiers would not have competed a year ago. They probably wouldn't have competed in this game a week ago. The positive news is that there is progress being made. The negative news is that this team is still a long way away from challenging for an NCAA tournament. That's not shocking and no one should have been surprised Indiana lost to Maryland. Thing is, this was a winnable game and IU could have won if a few plays would have been made.

Freshmen Play Well
Christian Watford looked great and Maurice Creek continues to show off his scoring ability. Derek Elston had nine rebounds in 20 minutes (he needs to be on the floor more) and Jordan Hulls had a very nice game. I really love the progress these young guys are making. They appear to be ready to lead this team into the future.

Shooting Woes
IU really struggled to shoot the ball. They were getting some good looks but their shooting fell apart in the final ten minutes and Maryland ran away with the game. Verdell Jones was 3-15 (not worried about him), Devan Dumes was 2-10 (he looks horrible), and Derek Elston was 2-10. Overall, the team shot 32.9%. Maryland shot 47%.

Rebounding Improvement
IU rebounded the ball very well on Tuesday night. They were +2 on the glass against a team that traditionally rebounds well. Again, Elston was active with nine boards in 20 minutes. Verdell Jones had ten rebounds and Jeremiah Rivers had six. The only disappointing rebound stat was Tom Pritchard with four in 25 minutes. Can someone tell me why he is getting more minutes than Derek Elston or Bobby Capobianco?

Scoring Droughts
If Indiana is going to beat a few teams that they shouldn't this season, they have to focus for 40 minutes. They focused for a total of about 32 minutes against Maryland and the eight minutes they didn't focus got them beat. They could have won this game but scoring droughts absolutely killed them. They seem to have a couple of stretches every game where they can't hit a shot, turn it over a few times in a row and have some defensive lapses. You can't beat good teams that way.

Next Up
IU will get another chance to beat a team they probably shouldn't when they play Pittsburgh next Tuesday night in the Garden. The game is right after a very interesting contest between Butler and Georgetown. The Bulldogs and Hoosiers could both use wins over quality opponents.

Congratulations to the Big Ten. They finally beat the ACC in the Challenge. Wisconsin stunned Duke (never, ever doubt Bo Ryan) and Illinois came back to knock off Clemson. Northwestern, Purdue, Penn State and Ohio State also won. IU, Michigan State, Minnesota, Iowa and Michigan (they are really struggling) were on the losing end.

Until next time, God Bless.