Dethroning the King

The Southern California Trojans have ruled the PAC-10 almost since the day Pete Carroll arrived on campus.  They have won seven straight conference titles and produced top-flight NFL talent every year.  I really despise USC and I am waiting for the day that the NCAA will finally come down on Carroll and the Trojans for their multiple rules violations (Bush scandal mainly).  To be completely honest, it is probably jealousy but that's okay.  Is this the year someone in the PAC-10 will be able to step up and take down the king or will the Trojans win #8 in a row?  

10.  Washington State Cougars- 15 returning starters (8 offense, 7 defense), 1-11 (0-9)

Washington State was really bad last year.  They beat Washington by three points in the Apple Cup but did not come within 21 points in another conference game.  They gave up 66 points to Cal and Oregon State, 69 to USC and 58 to Stanford.  The good news is that they return 15 starters.  The bad news is that they return 15 starters from a team with the aforementioned results, did not add much talent through recruiting and they now have to go to USC, Oregon and California.  They will manage to beat Hawaii in Seattle for their only win.  

9.  Washington Huskies- 18 returning starters (8 offense, 10 defense), 2-10 (1-8)

Washington used to be a very proud football program.  They peaked under Rick Neuheisel before he was let go following a betting scandal.  They have brought former USC assistant Steve Sarkisian in to bring some pride and excitement to the Northwest.  The Huskies have a very good quarterback in Jake Locker but not a whole lot else, they went 0-12 last year for a reason.  I see them improving this year and getting back to respectability in a few years if Sarkisian stays.  Wins over Idaho and Washington State are about the best they can hope this season.

8.  Arizona State Sun Devils- 13 returning starters (7 offense, 6 defense), 4-8 (2-7)

The Sun Devils were able to succeed very quickly under Dennis Erickson.  They reached ten wins in 2007 and things appeared to set up for a run at a PAC-10 title last season.  Injuries and poor offensive play led to a disappointing 5-7 record.  This team should excel on defense with standout players like defensive end Dexter Davis and stud freshman linebacker Vontaze Burfict.  But, until proven otherwise, the lack of offense will keep this team from getting back to a bowl.  Just a quick point, as soon as Burfict gets eligible (should be any day now), he will be one of the best linebackers in the conference.  

7.  Stanford Cardinal- 17 returning starters (9 offense, 8 defense), 5-7 (3-6)

I really like Jim Harbaugh, he is a star in the making.  Stanford seems to agree, a donor recently donated over $10,000 to build Harbaugh a luxury bathroom.  Ahhhhh college athletics, the only place where a bathroom could be used a recruiting tool and it wouldn't be considered ridiculous.  The Cardinal finished 5-7 last year.  This team should be a little bit better but the schedule is tougher too.  I really like Toby Gerhart at running back, he is a bowling ball that never quits moving forward.  Redshirt freshman Andrew Luck will be starting at quarterback.  He was the eight-ranked prep quarterback two years ago and if he lives up to that billing and matures quickly, Stanford could go to a bowl game.  I have them beating Washington State, Wake Forest, San Jose State, Washington and Arizona State.  By the way, the Stanford tree is ridiculously stupid.  It makes me really happy that IU doesn't have a mascot.  

6.  Arizona Wildcats- 13 returning starters (6 offense, 7 defense), 7-5 (5-4)

Arizona saved Mike Stoops' job last season by going 8-5.  Longtime QB Willie Tuitama has graduated and he will be sorely missed.  Matt Scott, a true sophomore, has apparently won the starting job.  Running back Nic Grisgby is one of the best running backs in the conference which should help the transition for Scott.  However, three starters are gone from the offensive line.  The defensive line is a strength as the entire 2-deep returns.  Arizona's schedule is pretty difficult and I expect a small drop from last season's eight wins.  However, Mike Stoops will guide the Cats back to a bowl game.  They will lose at Iowa, at Oregon State, at Cal, at home to Oregon and at USC.  

T-3.  Oregon Ducks- 9 returning starters (4 offense, 5 defense), 9-3 (6-3)

I have three teams tied at 6-3 and head-to-head won't help determine the order.  So, they are in particular order.  Oregon went 10-3 last year, head coach Mike Bellotti retired but Chip Kelly was the offensive coordinator and the transition was smooth and seamless.  Jeremiah Masoli is going to have a breakout season at QB, Lagarrette Blount is a beast of a running back at 6'2" and 240 pounds and their is plenty of talent to plug in holes.  I have them losing to Cal, at UCLA and to USC.  The biggest and most intriguing game of the first weekend might not be Alabama-Virginia Tech.  It might be Oregon at Boise State.  If Boise State can beat the Ducks, they might go undefeated.  I have Oregon winning a high-scoring affair and getting a big feather in the PAC-10's cap.

T-3.  Oregon State Beavers- 10 returning starters (7 offense, 3 defense), 9-3 (6-3)

The Beavers can never be underestimated.  Mike Riley is one of the best coaches in the country, Lyle Moevao is an experienced QB, Jacquizz and James Rodgers are talented playmakers and they have a great homefield advantage.  Let's not forget the awesome uniforms either.  The concerns revolve around a defense that only returns three starters.  They will lose at USC, at Cal and at Oregon.

T-3.  UCLA Bruins- 16 returning starters (9 offense, 7 defense), 9-3 (6-3)

When Rick Neuheisel was hired as the new UCLA coach before last season, he drew some flack for saying that USC's monopoly on LA was over.  People laughed and Pete Carroll wasn't worried.  I am here to say that Neuheisel is right and things might change sooner rather than later.  He has been recruiting extremely well and UCLA will return to respectability very quickly (try this season).  I am not saying that the Bruins will be beating up on USC anytime soon but the monopoly will be over soon.  Look for redshirt freshman Kevin Prince to bring longtime stability and talent to the quarterback situation.  UCLA will fall at Arizona, at Oregon State and at USC.  

2.  USC Trojans- 12 returning starters (9 offense, 3 defense), 11-1 (8-1)

Yeah, I know, this is wishful thinking.  USC has been dropping one conference game that they shouldn't for the past few years and I hope they do it again.  My reasoning is that their game at California is early in the season, USC is starting a freshman who is 18 years old at quarterback, a defense that only returns three starters and the fact that Cal is very good.  The Trojans are loaded at running back, offensive line and nearly every defensive position.  I have questions about the wide receivers and Matt Barkley has never taken a college snap.  It would not surprise me at all if they went undefeated but I hope they don't.

1.  California Golden Bears- 15 returning starters (7 offense, 8 defense), 11-1 (8-1)

Jeff Tedford is a very good coach and he has had some really good teams at California.  Unfortunately for him, USC's reign of dominance has coincided with those good teams.  Jahvid Best is the best running back in the country, Kevin Riley is a good quarterback and the defense should be the best unit in the conference.  They are led 1st-team PAC-10 corner Syd'quan Thompson and Darian Hagan.  Cal gets USC at home and I am calling for the upset.  I have them losing at UCLA but they would beat USC head-to-head and take the PAC-10 title, I hope.  

  

Balance or Mediocrity?

The Atlantic Coast Conference is well-known as a basketball powerhouse.  The same was expected from football when Miami, Boston College and Virginia switched from the Big East.  However, Miami and Florida State have struggled and the conference suffered through nearly a decade of BCS losses.  They don't have a national championship contender but I feel like most of the teams in the league are getting better.  Things are nowhere close to where they are in basketball but the ACC has some very good talent and young quarterbacks that are fun to watch.

Atlantic Division

6.  Maryland Terrapins- 9 returning starters (5 offense, 4 defense) 4-8 (2-6)

The Terrapins surprised many last season by winning eight games.  They lost 30 lettermen and will be hard pressed to replace them.  Maryland has a senior quarterback in Chris Turner and Da'Rel Scott is a very talented junior running back.  The passing game took a big hit when Darrius Heyward-Bey went to the NFL.  They don't have anyone to replace his big-play ability.  The offensive line graduated 116 career starts which means they will struggle to sustain any offense.  The news is not much brighter on defense.  Maryland returns only 56% of their lettermen, the fewest of any non-military academy.  They will manage to beat Virginia at home and win at Duke.

5.  Wake Forest Demon Deacons- 13 returning starters (9 offense, 4 defense) 4-8 (2-6)

Jim Grobe is one of the best coaches in the country but Wake Forest will not be repeating last year's eight-win total.  Riley Skinner is solid quarterback that has had a lot of experience, his senior season needs to be his best one yet.  The running backs are solid, the wide receivers are very inexperienced but have potential and the offensive line returns nine of the top ten.  The offense should be pretty good.  The problems are on defense where only four starters return.  Aaron Curry was a top-5 draft pick and cornerback Alphonso Smith is the all-time ACC interception leader.  Wake Forest does not have the players to replace that kind of star power.  They have a difficult schedule and I have them losing to Baylor and Stanford to open the season.  They will beat Maryland at home win at Duke to get two conference victories.   

4.  Boston College Eagles- 12 returning starters (6 offense, 6 defense) 6-6 (3-5)

Boston College appeared to be poised for a pretty good season after a strong 9-5 finish and a division title.  However, head coach Jeff Jagodzinski was fired after interviewing for an NFL job.  They promoted longtime defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani.  Quarterback Dominique Davis was kicked off the team and star linebacker Mark Herzlich was diagnosed with cancer.  Unfortunately, Herzlich will be forced to miss the entire season and the Eagles will sorely miss his leadership and talent.  He was the probably the best returning defensive player in the conference.  I still think BC has enough talent to go to a bowl game but another division title is not going to happen.  They should be able to beat Wake Forest at home and win road games at Virginia and Maryland.  

3.  NC State Wolfpack- 14 returning starters (7 offense, 7 defense) 7-5 (4-4)

I like the Wolfpack this year for two reasons.  The first, Tom O'Brien is a great coach.  The second, Russell Wilson will be the best quarterback in the conference.  The sophomore was inserted midway through the season and showed that he can make the offense tick.  He has thrown 249 passes without an interception, the longest streak in the nation.  They are solid on the lines of scrimmage and the defense is okay.  NC State needs some more playmakers to help Wilson out.  If they can find some, the Wolfpack will be extremely dangerous.  I still see them beating Wake Forest, Boston College, Duke and Maryland to go 4-4 in the ACC.

2.  Florida State Seminoles- 13 returning starters (8 offense, 5 defense) 7-5 (4-4)

Florida State is missing something.  They really have lost their luster and I don't see it coming back anytime soon.  The recruiting is still going pretty well but they haven't had electric playmakers on offense or dominant defenders for quite a while.  Christian Ponder is probably the best quarterback they have had recently and the receivers have the potential to be pretty good.  Mickey Andrews almost always has a good defense but this unit doesn't have NFL-talent like we have seen from the Seminoles in the past.  They have a pretty tough schedule which dooms them to another lower bowl game.  I think they beat BC, NC State, Wake Forest and Maryland.  

1.  Clemson Tigers- 15 returning starters (7 offense, 8 defense) 10-2 (6-2)

Tommy Bowden was fired in the middle of last year's 7-6 debacle.  Clemson fans had finally seen enough of top talent being wasted.  Dabo Swinney was promoted and the players seemed to respond to him.  This will be his first full-season and I think it will go well.  CJ Spiller returns to lead the backfield and quarterback Kyle Parker (a better baseball player) has reportedly improved a lot.  The defensive end tandem of Ricky Sapp and Da'Quan Bowers are the best in the conference.  The schedule sets up nicely and I think the Tigers finally get a division title.  Their only losses will be at Georgia Tech and at Miami.  

Coastal Division

6.  Duke Blue Devils- 11 returning starters (6 offense, 5 defense) 3-9 (0-8)

Head coach David Cutcliffe (mentor of the Mannings) has done a nice job of bringing a can-do attitude to Duke football.  However, they only have 11 starters back and the schedule is tough.  This will be a minor step-back in the building process but if Cutcliffe stays at Duke, he will eventually succeed.  Watch quarterback Thaddeus Lewis, NFL scouts like him quite a bit.  

5.  Virginia Cavaliers- 11 returning starters (5 offense, 6 defense) 4-8 (1-7)

Al Groh has produced a lot of NFL talent in his time as the UVA coach.  However, he has not had very many good teams.  The heat is on in Charlottesville and Groh needs a big year to keep his job.  Jameel Sewell returns after spending a season away from the team.  Ras-I Dowling will be a cornerback in the NFL and he is the best player on this squad.  Virginia's schedule is not too bad but they just aren't that good.  They should beat William & Mary, Southern Miss, IU in a close one, and Duke at home.  I doubt four wins will keep Groh's job.

4.  Miami Hurricanes- 15 returning starters (8 offense, 7 defense) 7-5 (5-3)

Miami is a much-improved squad from last season's 7-6 team.  However, the schedule is absolutely brutal.  They open up at Florida State (win), Georgia Tech (loss), at Virginia Tech (loss), and against Oklahoma (loss).  If they could manage to split those four games it would be a huge success.  The running backs need to show more than have in their careers.  Graig Cooper and Javarris James have more talent than we have seen.  I like Jacory Harris and it is good that he is now the full-time starter.  A more manageable non-conference schedule would have me calling for this team to win ten games.

3.  North Carolina Tar Heels- 15 returning starters (6 offense, 9 defense) 10-2 (6-2)

I think more of North Carolina than most people do.  Butch Davis has brought in three very good recruiting classes and this is his most talented team.  They only lost 14 lettermen from an 8-5 team and they have seven home games.  The non-conference slate is The Citadel, UConn, East Carolina and Georgia Southern.  They also get Florida State and Miami at home.  I have them losing to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech for their only two defeats.  

2.  Virginia Tech Hokies- 15 returning starters (8 offense, 7 defense) 10-2 (7-1)

Frank Beamer is one of the best.  He took a squad that looked horrible at the beginning of the year and turned them into ACC Champions and Orange Bowl champions.  Tyrod Taylor has improved a lot as a quarterback and Beamer's defense is always good.  Darren Evans led all freshman in rushing yards last season but he has a torn ACL and will be out for the season.  Freshman Ryan Williams and David Wilson will now be the backs and they probably have more talent than Evans.  However, I think the injury really hurts them in their opener against a physical Alabama team.  I see them losing a slugfest to 'Bama and losing at Georgia Tech.

1.  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets- 18 returning starters (10 offense, 8 defense) 12-0 (8-0)

I know that sounds crazy.  Georgia Tech going undefeated, what?!?  They have 18 starters back from a 9-4 team and they have another season under Paul Johnson's option offense.  Running back Jonathan Dwyer is the reigning ACC Player of the Year and I see no reason why he can't win it again.  Josh Nesbitt is perfect for Johnson's system and the defense should be improved.  Their toughest non-conference game is their finale as they will host rival Georgia.  They get Virginia Tech and North Carolina at home as well.  Georgia Tech will not play in the National Championship game but I see an Orange Bowl berth for the Yellow Jackets.  

"It's The Big 12!"

Colorado head coach Dan Hawkins gave us some great soundbytes in a classic rant a few years ago and he is right, this is my preview of the Big 12.  IU's season-opener is only one week away.  I will be previewing the ACC next, then the PAC-10, Big East and maybe some of the non-BCS teams.  Today, though I preview the best offensive conference in the nation.  The Big 12 might not play the stingiest defense but make no mistake, these offenses are explosive.  Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford lead the way but don't forget about Todd Reesing, Zac Robinson and Robert Griffin.  The Big 12 had a three-way logjam at the top a year ago and this season might see a repeat.  It is very conceivable that Texas will beat Oklahoma only to lose at Oklahoma State and get jumped by the Sooners once again.  There aren't many easy games here, after all, "it ain't intramurals!"

Big 12 North

6.  Iowa State Cyclones- 15 returning starters (9 offense, 6 defense), 3-9 (0-8)

Paul Rhoads was the defensive coordinator for Auburn before taking this job.  ISU has been the doormat for a little while now and I don't see that changing this season.  Austin Arnaud is a pretty good quarterback but the Cyclones don't have any playmakers and their defense cannot slow down the high-powered offense they see nearly every week.  I see them beating North Dakota State, Kent State and Army.  Their best chance for a conference victory is against Kansas State in Kansas City.

5.  Kansas State Wildcats- 14 returning starters (6 offense, 8 defense), 4-8 (1-7)

Bill Snyder has come out of retirement for his second stint in Manhattan.  He did a remarkable job his first time around but I don't see it working this time.  Snyder had a ton of success with JUCO players and he was one of the only college coaches giving those guys a chance.  That is no longer the case.  A lot of schools are using JUCO players to supplement their recruiting classes and plug holes on the roster.  For now, they can rely on a fairly weak schedule that sees them only play one division foe on the road.  They might be able to surprise some teams in Manhattan but I only see them beating Iowa State, UMASS, Louisiana and Tennessee Tech.  

4.  Missouri Tigers- 9 returning starters (5 offense, 4 defense), 6-6 (3-5)

The Missouri Tigers lost 13 starters from a 10-4 team that won the Big 12 North last season.  Chase Daniel, Chase Kauffman and Jeremy Maclin are all gone.  They have talent stepping up in their place but a difficult schedule makes this a rebuilding year.  Sophomore Blaine Gabbert is a terrific QB prospect, RB Derrick Washington could have another All-Big 12 season and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon is one of the best in the country.  However, their inexperience made it really difficult for me to pick them to beat veteran teams like Colorado, Texas and Oklahoma State.  

3.  Colorado Buffaloes- 13 returning starters (9 0ffense, 4 defense) 7-5 (4-4)

Coach Dan Hawkins insists that this team should win 10 games this season.  I think they will improve on their 5-win total from last season, but they won't double it.  Cody Hawkins needs to improve but I like the offensive line.  Look for running back Darrell Scott to have a breakout season.  He was the #1 RB recruit and big things were expected of him in his freshman season.  He battled injuries and was a minor disappointment.  He is healthy now and fellow sophomore Rodney Stewart gives the Buffs a very good running attack.  The problem could be on defense where only four starters return.  Colorado will beat Colorado State, Toledo and Wyoming to start the season 3-0.  I think they will lose a tough game at West Virginia (night game in Morgantown is tough), and lose their first two conference games against Texas and Kansas.  Victories over Kansas State, Missouri, Texas A&M and Iowa State will move them to seven wins.  Best-case scenario, Colorado beat West Virginia and Nebraska to get nine wins.  Sorry Coach Hawkins, ten wins won't happen.

2.  Nebraska Cornhuskers- 13 returning starters (6 offense, 7 defense), 9-3 (6-2)

Bo Pelini has the Sea of Red fired up again.  Pelini discarded the west coast offense of Bill Callahan that never fit in Lincoln.  He is recruiting and looking to get back to the smashmouth style Nebraska used to be known for.  Nebraska had 34 starts lost to injury last season and still finished 9-4.  Huskers fans have to like what Pelini is doing and the schedule is favorable this season.  The only negative is that they play at Kansas which is why I took the Jayhawks to win the North.  I think they lose at KU, at Virginia Tech and at home against Oklahoma.  

1.  Kansas Jayhawks- 14 returning starters (7 offense, 7 defense), 10-2 (6-2)

Mark Mangino has done a wonderful job at Kansas.  He has turned them into annual contenders in the North and I think they win it this year.  Todd Reesing is overshadowed by the QBs in the Big 12 South but he is a leader and a very good passer.  Dezmon Briscoe is an electric playmaker at WR and former QB Kerry Meier has great hands and is a reliable target.  This might be Mangino's best KU squad yet and a favorable schedule gives them the nod.  I have them losing to Oklahoma and at Texas.  The key game will be their home game against Nebraska on November 14.  

Big 12 South

6.  Texas A & M Aggies- 16 returning starters (10 offense, 6 defense), 5-7 (2-6)

Aggies fans are not very pleased by head coach Mike Sherman.  He is not recruiting very well and the success of Texas, Texas Tech, and the recent surge of Baylor has them worried A & M will fall from relevance.  I think it is too late for that.  Kyle Field is still a tough place to play but Texas A & M is no longer a threat to beat OU or Texas.  They should beat two of their North foes (KSU and ISU) but they won't win a game in the South.

5.  Baylor Bears- 16 returning starters (8 offense, 8 defense), 6-6 (2-6)

This is the most excitement surrounding Baylor football in quite some time.  Art Briles has energized this program and recruits are taking notice.  Robert Griffin was a track star (hurdles champion) that has turned into an electric playmaker and three defenders (safety Jordan Lake, defensive tackle Phil Taylor and linebacker Joe Pawelek) could make the All-Big 12 team.  Unfortunately for the Bears, depth is an issue and the Big 12 South is going to be tough for the foreseeable future.  I think they win at Wake Forest, beat UConn, Northwestern State and Kent State out of conference.  They will also handle Iowa State and Texas A & M in conference to get to a bowl game.

4.  Texas Tech Red Raiders- 11 returning starters (4 offense, 7 defense), 7-5 (4-4)

Don't worry about the loss of Graham Harrell.  Junior Taylor Potts is more physically gifted and he has been in the system for two years.  Potts is the most talented QB that has been in Mike Leach's pass-happy system and the results should be fun to watch.  The loss of Michael Crabtree will be tougher to replace.  Detron Lewis should put up the best numbers of the wide receivers.  The defense might be a little bit improved from last season but it won't be enough to keep Texas Tech from sliding back a little bit.  I have them losing at Texas, getting upset by Houston, losing at Nebraska, at Oklahoma State and at home to Oklahoma.  

3.  Oklahoma State Cowboys- 13 returning starters (7 offense, 6 defense), 10-2 (6-2)

The Cowboys have three Heisman Trophy darkhorses (Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant, and Kendall Hunter) and one of the best offensive linemen in the country (Russell Okung).  They should be a shoe-in for a BCS bowl right?  They would be if they played in the Big Ten, ACC or the Big East.  However, they play in the loaded Big 12 South and are one of three teams ranked in the top ten.  I think they will lose close games to Texas and Oklahoma and probably go to the Cotton Bowl.  The biggest game in program history might be September 5 against Georgia.  An impressive win there and the nation will take notice.  A win also could setup another huge game, October 31 against Texas.

2.  Oklahoma Sooners- 14 returning starters (5 offense, 9 defense), 11-1 (7-1)

Oklahoma received great news when Sam Bradford announced he was returning to defend his Heisman Trophy.  Then tight end Jermaine Gresham turned down the NFL to return for his senior season and defensive tackle Gerald McCoy followed suit.  I really like this team and they deserve to be in the top five.  I picked Texas to beat the Sooners again for one reason, Colt McCoy.  It would not surprise me at all to see the Sooners beat the Longhorns.  If they do, they would need to win at Kansas and beat Oklahoma State to finish undefeated and get another shot at the national title.

1.  Texas Longhorns- 16 returning starters (9 offense, 7 defense) 12-0 (8-0)

Texas is in the same boat as Oklahoma here.  Colt McCoy returns for his senior season looking to win a Heisman Trophy and a national title.  Vondrell McGee and Fozzy Whittaker will split the carries in the backfield.  Jordan Shipley is McCoy's favorite target but Malcolm Williams and John Chiles will also get plenty of balls thrown their way.  Freshman defensive end Alex Okafor is a beast and strong side linebacker Sergio Kindle finally lived up to his potential last season.  The only concern I have about Texas is their tight ends are really beat up right now.  If they can find some healthy bodies to play tight end, the Longhorns will survive games against Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State and Kansas and end up undefeated.  By the way, have you seen Colt McCoy's new mustache?  Hey, if a career in football doesn't work out, he can be a cop.  

Until next time, stay vigilant and God Bless America.

Simply the Best

The Southeastern Conference has been the best football conference in the nation for most of this decade.  I don't see this year being any different.  They have superstar coaches and passionate fans throughout the conference.  Everyone knows about Tim Tebow but he is not the only great player in this stacked league.  Jevon Snead has Ole Miss flying high, Alabama is loaded on defense and LSU should be much improved on offense behind Jordan Jefferson.  I know it has become a cliche but there really is nothing like college in the deep South.  I am going to rank the teams the same way I did the Big Ten (team, returning starters, projected record).

SEC East

6.  Kentucky Wildcats- 12 returning starters (7 offense, 5 defense), 5-7 (1-7)

The Kentucky Wildcats have improved drastically under coach Rich Brooks.  Joker Phillips is the offensive coordinator and coach in waiting.  This team will continue to be competitive but this year will not see the Cats in a bowl game.  Mike Hartline is okay at QB and WR Randall Cobb is a star in the making.  The running game should be more productive than it was last year but Kentucky will have a hard time stopping people.  I have them topping Mississippi State in Lexington for their only conference win.  They should beat Miami (OH), Louisville, Louisiana Monroe and Eastern Kentucky to get to five wins.  

5.  Vanderbilt Commodores- 17 returning starters (8 offense, 9 defense), 5-7 (2-6)

Vanderbilt returns 17 starters from a seven-win team.  They got a lot of breaks last year and had an outstanding 4-4 SEC campaign.  Star cornerback DJ Moore left for the NFL and they lost two QBs that played last season.  Bobby Johnson is an outstanding coach but the schedule is tougher this season and Vandy will struggle to reach seven wins again.  I have them beating Mississippi State and Kentucky at home plus adding wins over Western Carolina, Rice and Army.  

4.  Tennessee Volunteers- 13 returning starters (7 offense, 6 defense), 6-6 (3-5)

Phil Fulmer had a very good career at Tennessee but things had grown stale and the Volunteers decided to move in a different direction.  They brought in former Oakland Raiders head coach and USC assistant Lane Kiffin.  Kiffin has riled up the fan base with a lot of public statements about getting the Vols back to the top.  He has had some issues with recruiting infractions as well.  I don't like Kiffin or Tennessee but the UT fans do.  They have a very good defense led by Eric Berry, one of the best defensive players in the country.  The offense is a different story.  Star running back recruit Bryce Brown has eligibility issues, the quarterbacks are a mess and they don't have any playmakers.  The defense will keep them in games but the offense won't be able to score enough to beat the good teams.  They will take down Auburn and Vanderbilt in Knoxville and beat Kentucky on the road.  

3.  South Carolina Gamecocks- 11 returning starters (5 offense, 6 defense), 5-7 (3-5)

Steve Spurrier has not had the kind of success he expected to have in beautiful Columbia.  The issues have largely been at quarterback.  Stephen Garcia has the tools but his immaturity and poor leadership has kept him from fully developing.  Garcia has apparently made a lot of progress in the offseason.  If that is true, South Carolina could be dangerous, especially at home.  The schedule is pretty daunting with road games at North Carolina State (loss), Georgia (loss), Alabama (loss) and Arkansas (loss).  They also host Florida (loss) and Clemson (loss).  I have them beating Florida Atlantic, South Carolina State, Kentucky and Vanderbilt at home and adding a road win at Tennessee.

2.  Georgia Bulldogs- 15 returning starters (7 offense, 8 defense), 8-4 (6-2)

The Bulldogs are a very difficult team for me to predict.  They had a ton of injuries last season, specifically on the offensive line, that made it difficult for them to fulfill the promise they had at the start of the year.  The linemen are healthy now, they have a star in AJ Green and they are very deep on both offense and defense.  However, it will be tough to replace Matthew Stafford, Knowshon Moreno and Mohamed Mossaquoi.  Senior Joe Cox steps in to play QB, Caleb King and Richard Samuel will split carries at running back and Tavarres King will be asked to step up at wide receiver.  This team is very talented but they have a difficult schedule.  I see them losing their opener at Oklahoma State and dropping at Arkansas, Florida and Georgia Tech.  That leaves them with an 8-4 (6-2) season.  After losing the skill players they did, that would not be bad at all.

1.  Florida Gators- 18 returning starters (7 offense, 11 defense), 12-0 (8-0)

This one is a no-doubter.  The defending national champions return all 11 defensive starters, their top running backs, tight ends, top linemen plus a great special teams unit.  Oh yeah, they also have the best leader in college football.  That's right Tim Tebow is back to go after a third national championship.  The only question for this team is who will replace Percy Harvin.  The likely answer is going to be a combination of several people.  This team doesn't have someone like Harvin, no one does.  However, they have several players that can imitate him admirably.  Look for Jeff Demps and freshman Andre Debose to fill Harvin's shoes.  On defense, watch linebacker Brandon Spikes and defensive end Carlos Dunlap.  They are both going to be high draft picks.  Florida only has three SEC games in The Swamp and they have tough games at LSU, at South Carolina and in Jacksonville against Georgia.  I think the Gators will repeat as National Champions.

SEC West

6.  Mississippi State Bulldogs- 10 returning starters (6 offense, 4 defense), 2-10(0-8)

Things are not pretty in Starkville.  Sylvester Croom is out and former Florida offensive coordinator Dan Mullen is the new head coach.  Mullen has gotten solid returns in recruiting but this year's roster will have a hard time competing in the brutal SEC.  Add losses to Houston and Georgia Tech to the eight conference losses and you have a very long season for MSU.

5.  Auburn Tigers- 15 returning starters (7 offense, 8 defense),  5-7 (2-6)

It was a tumultuous offseason at Auburn.  Tommy Tuberville was let go and former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik was hired.  The hire was extremely controversial because former Nebraska star and current Buffalo head coach Turner Gill has a much better resume than Chizik who was in the process of bombing out at Iowa State.  Several people criticized that Gill was passed up because of his race.  Whatever the case, Chizik will have an uphill battle in his first season.  The quarterback play was atrocious last season and it probably won't get much better.  Ben Tate and Mario Fannin are solid running backs but they can't carry the whole offense.  The defense will be pretty good but they can't pitch shutouts every game.  Auburn will manage to beat Mississippi State and Kentucky for two SEC wins.  

4.  Arkansas Razorbacks- 18 returning starters (8 offense, 10 defense), 8-4 (4-4)

The Arkansas Razorbacks are about to explode onto the scene.  They are my surprise team in the loaded SEC.  Bobby Petrino is one of the best offensive minds in football and he has the personnel to run his system this season.  A couple of bold predictions here: Arkansas will score the second most points in the conference (behind only Florida), and Ryan Mallett will have the most yards and passing touchdowns in the SEC.  Mallett is a transfer from Michigan.  He is 6'7", 245 pounds with an absolute cannon for an arm.  He is not as good a quarterback as Tebow or Snead but his stats will be better.  Michael Smith and USC transfer Broderick Green are very good running backs.  The wide receivers are good and DJ Williams might be the best tight end in the country.  The Razorbacks have a very tough schedule and their defense is shaky so they won't be able to contend for a division title but this is a team you don't want to play.  They will lose at Alabama, at Florida, at Ole Miss and at LSU.  However, I think they will notch wins over Georgia, Auburn, South Carolina and Mississippi State in Fayetteville.  It wouldn't shock me to see them win one of those very tough road games.

3.  LSU Tigers- 14 returning starters (7 offense, 7 defense), 8-4 (4-4)

Another tough call.  I would not be surprised to see LSU with ten wins.  I just don't trust the offense yet.  Jordan Jefferson is a definite upgrade at quarterback and Charles Scott is a very good running back.  The receivers are extremely athletic.  Terrance Toliver, Brandon LaFell and freshman Rueben Randle form a really good group.  Trindon Holliday is a difference-maker on special teams.  I see the Tigers losing at Georgia, at Alabama and at Ole Miss.  Their only home loss will be to the Florida Gators.

2.  Ole Miss Rebels- 16 returning starters (8 offense, 8 defense) 11-1 (7-1)

This is the best team the Rebels have had in a long, long time.  Jevon Snead is a star and they have talent all over the roster.  They are not as deep as the other teams at the top of the conference so they need to stay healthy.  The schedule could not be any better as they avoid Florida and Georgia and get Alabama, LSU and Arkansas in Oxford.  I have them losing their only game of the season to Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide.

1.  Alabama Crimson Tide- 13 returning starters (4 offense, 9 defense) 12-0 (8-0)

Nick Saban hasn't taken long to get the Tide rolling again.  They only return four offensive starters but the offense wasn't great last year anyway.  Greg McElroy steps in at QB.  He will be asked to make a few plays and not screw up.  Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson and Roy Upchurch are all very good running backs and Julio Jones is outstanding.  The defense was nasty last year and will be again this season.  Massive Terrence Cody (6'5", 365 lbs.) decided to come back for his senior season to anchor the line.  Brandon Fanney and Rolando McClain join Dont'a Hightower to form one of the best linebacking corps in the country.  Javier Arenas is a good corner and a great return man.  The schedule is far from easy but they don't play Florida or Georgia.  The opener against Virginia Tech will set the tone for an undefeated season.  This division will be decided on October 10 in Oxford.  I think Alabama wins that one and takes their second straight division title.

The Big Ten

The past few years have been pretty rough for Big Ten football.  There have been several high-profile losses in non-conference games and many more in bowl games.  Ohio State has been the only team to be consistently relevant in the national picture.  Penn State was a great story last year but Michigan struggled.  The conference appears to only have two horses and those horses aren't as fast as those from Pac-10, Big 12 or SEC.  There is absolutely no question that the conference is not close to the Big 12 or SEC.  However, the tide may be turning.  Several Big Ten programs are recruiting very well.  Michigan should turn things around very soon and Michigan State and Minnesota have shocked recruiting experts with some of their signings.  

As for this season, I see two teams that are clearly a cut above the rest of the conference.  There is then a group of seven teams that should be very competitive with each other.  The bottom two teams will struggle to escape the basement.  I will run through the conference in reverse order listing the team, returning starters and my projected record.  

11.  Indiana Hoosiers- 15 returning starters (6 0ffense, 9 defense), 3-9 (0-8)

Again, I think Indiana will be a much better team than they were last season.  However, the schedule is much more difficult.  I don't think they will get blown out in very many games like they were last season but it is going to be difficult to get more than 3 or 4 victories.  IU will beat Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Western Michigan before losing their final nine games.  I could see them beating Virginia, Northwestern, Purdue and Illinois.  So, best case scenario is seven wins.  Unfortunately, I think IU ends up in the cellar again.

10.  Purdue Boilermakers- 12 starters (5 offense, 7 defense), 5-7 (2-6)

Joe Tiller retired after a very successful career at Purdue.  Danny Hope takes over after serving as the "coach in waiting" last season.  The Boilers get running back Jaycen Taylor back from a knee injury and Coach Hope plans to rely on the running game more than Tiller.  Fifth-year senior Joey Elliott will start at quarterback.  Elliott has seen some action in his career but he has only thrown for 300 yards.  The schedule is favorable as they avoid Penn State and Iowa.  I think they beat Northwestern and IU to grab two conference wins.

9.  Northwestern Wildcats- 13 starters (5 offense, 8 defense)- 6-6 (2-6)

The Wildcats lost 23 lettermen from last year's 9-4 squad.  Pat Fitzgerald has proven to be an excellent coach but the Cats cannot weather that kind of personnel loss.  A very weak non-conference slate gives them a chance to go bowling but the loss of their quarterback, running back and top three wide receivers means Northwestern will take a step back.  

8.  Michigan Wolverines- 15 starters (10 offense, 5 defense)- 5-7 (2-6)

This is Rich Rodriguez's second season.  They return plenty of talent and have had a year under Rich Rod's offensive system.  They also add two mobile quarterbacks in Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson.  Brandon Minor is the 2nd best running back in the Big Ten and Brandon Graham is an All- Big Ten caliber defensive end.  The Wolverines will be improved but the schedule is really tough.  They don't get Northwestern or Minnesota and two of their home games are against Ohio State and Penn State.  

7.  Minnesota Golden Gophers- 17 starters (9 offense, 8 defense)- 6-6 (3-5)

Tim Brewster is entering his third season.  He has done a tremendous job so far and things should continue to go well because recruiting is going very well.  Adam Weber to Eric Decker is a lethal combo.  I have Minnesota beating Wisconsin, Purdue and Illinois at home in the brand new TCF Bank Stadium.  

6.  Michigan State Spartans- 15 returning starters (7 offense, 8 defense)- 7-5 (4-4)

Coach Mark Dantonio has changed the culture in East Lansing.  MSU used to be very talented but extremely unstable and flaky.  They now have a toughness and swagger that has benefitted them greatly on the field.  The Spartans lost starting quarterback Brian Hoyer.  Keith Nichol and Kirk Cousins are locked in a QB battle and apparently both have impressed.  They also lost Javon Ringer which is cause for concern.  But look closely at his statistics from last season and you will see that he only averaged 4.2 yards per carry.  Edwin Baker and Larry Caper are two talented freshman that should be able to carry the load.  MSU linebacker Greg Jones is the anchor of a talented and improving defense.  I see them winning home games against Michigan and Northwestern and road games at Purdue and Minnesota.  

5.  Illinois Fighting Illini- 13 returning starters (8 offense, 5 defense)- 8-4 (5-3)

The Illini were a very disappointing 5-7 last year.  Juice Williams returns for his senior season and Arrelious Benn is one of the best wide receivers in the country.  Jason Ford and Daniel Dufrene will split the carries in the backfield.  The offense is probably the most explosive in the conference but the defense needs to improve.  I have them losing to Ohio State, Penn State and Minnesota (Ron Zook teams are always due for at least one loss they shouldn't have).

4.  Wisconsin Badgers- 11 returning starters (6 offense, 5 defense)- 9-3 (5-3)

I actually think Illinois is better than the Badgers this year but the Badgers have the better schedule.  Redshirt freshman Curt Phillips is the new quarterback.  He won't be a star but the quarterback play will be better than it has been.  The Badgers probably have the best stable of backs in the conference with John Clay, Zach Brown and Erik Smith.  I also love Garrett Graham, the Badgers senior tight end.  Wisconsin needs to improve or Bret Bielema will find himself on the hot seat.  The Badgers have an easy non-conference schedule and I see them beating Michigan State, Purdue and Michigan in Madison and IU and Northwestern on the road.

3. Iowa Hawkeyes- 14 starters (6 offense, 8 defense) 10-2 (6-2)

They return 14 starters from a team that went 9-4.  Those four losses were by 1, 5, 3 and 3 points.  Shonn Greene is gone but Jewell Hampton is ready to step up.  I think they split four tough road tests losing only at Penn State and at Ohio State.

2.  Ohio State Buckeyes- 12 starters ( 5 offense, 7 defense) 10-2 (7-1)

The Buckeyes lost a lot of talent to the NFL.  They have plenty to plug in though.  Terrelle Pryor was voted the preseason Offensive Player of the Year.  The defense will be stout again.  A few questions that need answered: Do they have a feature running back to replace Beanie Wells?  Can Ray Small, Dane Sanzenbacher and Devier Posey be consistent playmakers?  Will the offensive line play up to their potential?  I think they lose to USC and get beat by Penn State in Happy Valley.

1.  Penn State Nittany Lions- 9 returning starters (5 offense, 4 defense)- 12-0 (8-0)

This Penn State squad is probably not as talented as last year's squad.  They only have nine starters back and they lost a lot of offensive and defensive playmakers.  I have them going undefeated because I like their incoming talent and the schedule is laughably easy.  Iowa and Ohio State are at home and they play Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois in the non-conference season.  Daryll Clark should have been the preseason POY, Evan Royster is the best running back in the conference and they like their new receivers.  Sean Lee is back from a knee injury and he joins Navarro Bowman and Michael Mauti to give the Nittany Lions the country's best linebackers.

Big Ten Network Tour

The Big Ten Network was in Bloomington on Monday.  The BTN is having a 90-minute show on each conference campus to preview the team and get some practice footage.  I watched the show this afternoon, gathered my thoughts and the opinions of the analysts (Dave Revsine, Mike Hall, Howard Griffith and Gerry DiNardo).  

Offense

-I was kind of disappointed that Darius Willis did not practice.  I was looking forward to at least seeing how he looked in pads. 

-Gerry DiNardo loves the decision to install the pistol.  He thinks it will help the running game and the defense.  DiNardo feels the pistol offense will give IU more of a ball-control offense that can run in between the tackles.  The more possession they have, the less the defense is on the field.

-The Hoosiers are still running the no-huddle.

-Everyone mentioned how much better the play-action pass can be with the pistol.  This is because the quarterback turns his back to the defense and the defense cannot see the ball.  

-Adam Follett has the #2 quarterback position right now but freshman Edward Wright-Baker is getting snaps with the second-team.  Wright-Baker passes the eyeball test.  He is muscular, has good size and his mechanics look good.  Howard Griffith even pointed out how much Wright-Baker stood out to him.

-All of the analysts were impressed by the offensive line.  They said that Rodger Saffold is "the best player on the team and one of the better linemen in the conference".

-Mike Hall asked Ben Chappell which receiver he had the best connection with.  His answer, "Probably Terrance Turner.  We have been together the whole time we have been here."

-Bryan Payton on Chappell: "Number one, he's a leader.  He takes control of the situation on the field and he knows what to do.  He's a wonderful competitor and we're glad to have him as a starter."

-DiNardo on Chappell: "He has a very good grasp of the offense.  He doesn't always make perfect throws but there is no indecision and his timing is good."

-DeMarlo Belcher looked great.  He has bulked up and he was moving really well.  Indiana's wideouts looked very impressive.  They are a big group that have a ton of potential.  Duwyce Wilson fits right in and DiNardo mentioned that he really stood out in position drills.

-Matt Canada (offensive coordinator)- "The pistol utilizes our players the best way we can."

"We have backs that can run downhill, running it downhill gives you playaction."  "I think we'll have explosion in this offense."  

-When Canada was asked the one key to this season, he responded, "We gotta run the football.  When we do that, we can pass the ball down the field."

Defense

-Ray Fisher looked like a natural at cornerback.  He really impressed the analysts.  

-Brian George (defensive coordinator) on Fisher: "Fisher is a natural.  He is a really good tackler." 

-George on the rest of the defense: "Middleton had a great offseason and he is now refocused.  "Depth is now a plus after last season's injuries."  "Matt Mayberry has really learned a lot.  He didn't play much defense in high school but he has really honed in."

-DiNardo feels that the linebackers look good.  He says they run well but need to prove they can be physical.  

-The analysts all agreed that the most important thing for this defense to find is someone to step up in the middle.  They need Mack, Mentzer, Smith, Replogle (Adam), and Sliger to plug the middle.

Renovations

Bryan Payton and Ben Chappell took reporter Mike Hall on a tour of the new facilities.  They were extremely impressive.  The offices look amazing, the weight room is massive and the Hall of Champions will be really cool when it gets done.  

-138,000 square foot multi-purpose facility

-25,000 square foot weight training facility (largest in the nation and five times bigger than what IU previously had)

-Stadium enclosure that connects the East and West stands

-New offices, meeting rooms, team room, and Hall of Champions

Bill Lynch: "Shows commitment to Indiana football.  It really brings a 'wow' factor."  "The pistol helps the defense because it gets them used to playing power football."  "Our offensive line is older, bigger and stronger."

DiNardo's final thoughts: "This is a drastically better football team.  The pistol will make them a tougher team.  There is absolutely no doubt that the difference between what we saw last season here and today is night and day."

It is important to remember that these guys are not going to say anything too negative while they are on campus.  However, I am mildly encouraged that they see a "night and day difference" from the team.  They talked about how much better the leadership under Ben Chappell appeared to be.  You can't take too much from something like this but I think fans should be satisfied with the way things are going at IU's camp.  Until next time, stay vigilant and God bless America.

The Schedule

In college football, the schedule will often decide conference titles and even national championships.  Who you play and when you play them go a long way in determining a team's record.  There are several teams every year that are more talented or play better than they did the previous season.  However, their schedule may get significantly tougher and they finish with the same record.  An example this season will probably be the University of Miami.  The Hurricanes open the season with a road game at Florida State, home against Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech and home against Oklahoma.  They should be better than last season but they will be hard pressed to add more than a win to their 7-6 record.  I believe the Indiana Hoosiers are more talented and will play much better than they did last season.  However, their schedule is more difficult and they are probably not going to improve much on their 3-9 record.  

I am going to briefly go the Hoosiers schedule.  You will see the date of the game, the opponent and a number.  The number is how winnable I think the game is for IU (1 means IU has a snowball's chance in hell and 10 means IU is close to a lock to win).  I will then give each game a little bit of analysis and eventually predict the Hoosiers record.

September 3- Eastern Kentucky- 9

This is the first Thursday night game in Memorial Stadium history and the Hoosiers will unveil their "new" home.  If you haven't seen the pictures of the renovation, check them out.  The Colonels are an FBS team that went 8-4 last season.  They lost 40-7 to Cincinnati, 37-13 to Western Kentucky and 38-10 to eventual FBS champion Richmond in the playoffs.  Indiana has struggled with FBS opponents before (remember Nicholls State) but I would be absolutely shocked if Indiana did not play well in this opener.  

September 12- Western Michigan- 6 

Indiana is 4-0 all-time against the Broncos and 32-6-2 against current MAC schools.  WMU returns 10 starters from a 9-4 squad.  That's not much but among those ten players are NFL prospect QB Tim Hiller, 2nd-team MAC running back Brandon West, and a veteran offensive line.  The Broncos are picked 2nd in the MAC West.  They could have a very potent offense but they return only three starters on defense.  Their opener against Michigan should tell us a lot.  I expect Indiana to win a pretty close, high-scoring contest.

September 19- @ Akron- 5

IU is 4-1 in their past five away openers.  The Zips were picked to finish second in the MAC East.  Akron returns a veteran QB (Chris Jacquemainn) and a very good duo of wide receivers (Bowser and Jones).  They were 5-7 last year but return nine starters on offense and six on defense.  This game will be only the second contest in the brand new Infocision Stadium.  Again, their opener at Penn State will tell us a lot.  I look at this game the exact same way as the WMU game.  The only difference is that this one is played on the road.  

September 26- @ Michigan- 3

IU has lost 15 straight and 30 of 31 to the Michigan Wolverines.  Their last win in Ann Arbor came in 1969.  IU is 1-16 in the last 17 Big Ten openers.  Everything here points to a loss.  Rich Rodriguez enters his second season after a very disappointing, but not shocking, 3-9 campaign.  The Wolverines return 15 starters and welcome mobile freshman quarterback, Tate Forcier.  Brandon Miner is one of the best running backs in the Big Ten.  Miner will run wild in what will probably be a three-touchdown win for the Maize and Blue.

October 3- Ohio State- 1

Ohio State has won 14 straight over the Hoosiers.  Terrelle Pryor enters his sophomore season as the preseason Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year.  The Buckeyes return 12 starters including seven on defense.  If they can find a way to beat USC on September 12, they will be national title contenders.  If not, the Buckeyes will still be fighting for another Big Ten title.  Either way, this one will be ugly.

October 10- @ Virginia- 4

Al Groh is on the hot seat.  UVA returns only 11 starters from a team that went 5-7 last year.  Talented QB Jameel Sewell returns and Mikell Simpson is a good running back.  This game is wedged in between

 difficult ACC road games at North Carolina and Maryland.  If this game were in Bloomington, I would have IU favored.  However, in Charlottesville, I give the Cavaliers a slight edge.  

October 17- Illinois- 4

IU has three wins against Illinois since 2003.  That is the most against any conference opponent.  This is IU's homecoming game and I could see them giving the Illini a battle.  The good, Illinois returns 13 starters including mercurial quarterback Juice Williams and wide receiver Arrelious Benn.  The bad, they only have 5 starters back on defense and Illinois does not typically play well at Indiana.  The ugly, Ron Zook is their coach.  Illinois is much more talented but I think Indiana will give them a tough game.  

October 24- @ Northwestern- 4

Last year's 21-19 win snapped a four-game losing streak to the Wildcats.  This is the one Big Ten game IU has a chance to win.  Northwestern returns only 5 offensive starters.  I don't have much  faith in Mike Kafka as a quarterback.  If Indiana can keep running back Stephen Simmons in check, they may pull off the upset.  I would be surprised, but if IU were going to win a road game in the Big Ten, this is it.

October 31- @ Iowa- 2

IU is 3-8 in Iowa City including an upset in 2007.  I really like Iowa this season.  Their losses last year were by 1, 5, 3 and 3 points.  They finished 9-4 but could have very easily been 12-1 or 13-0.  They have to replace Shonn Greene but Indianapolis native Jewell Hampton is ready to step up.  IU lost 45-9 last season and this contest will probably look about the same.  

November 7- Wisconsin- 3

IU has lost the last four games against the Badgers by 29 points per game.  Last year's game was absolutely embarrassing.  They allowed 601 yards including 441 on the ground.  I don't expect anything that lopsided this season.  I mentioned that IU's linebackers have bulked up and put on some much needed size.  That will be put to the test against John Clay and the Badgers.  Interesting note, Wisconsin's two safeties were suspended indefinitely which leaves the Badgers with only four returning starters on defense.  IU could score some points and hang in this one for a while.  

November 14- @ Penn State- 1

IU is 0-12 against the Nittany Lions.  In their last three trips to Happy Valley, the margin of defeat is 29 points per game.  PSU lost a lot from last season's squad but they return Darryl Clark, Evan Royster and a very talented defense.  It is always ugly when IU goes to Happy Valley.

November 21- Purdue- 5

IU is 2-10 against the Boilermakers since 1997 including last season's 62-10 blowout.  The 52-point defeat was the largest margin of defeat in the series since 1893.  I thought Bill Lynch could have been fired after the Old Oaken Bucket debacle.  It is impossible to know what position both teams will be in for this finale.  However, it is safe to assume this will be a battle for last place.  PU was 4-8 in Joe Tiller's final season and only return 12 starters.  I'll make one prediction here, Purdue won't score on their first ten possessions this time around.  

Okay, pretty tough schedule.  IU does not play Minnesota or Michigan State this year.  Michigan and Ohio State are back on the schedule.  Best case scenario, IU goes 4-0 out of conference and finds a way to beat Purdue and one other conference foe.  I definitely don't expect that.  If I had to guess, IU will win their first three and drop the rest to finish 3-9.  As I mentioned, they will be better and more competitive but it will be very tough to improve much on their win total.  

Returning From Injury

In 2007, the Indiana Hoosiers had to replace the top two tacklers but they could rely on cornerbacks Tracy Porter and Leslie Majors.  Last year they had to replace Porter and Majors and IU does not have the depth of talent to replace to corners that made NFL rosters.  Things were made worse when the unit was ravaged by injuries.  Christopher Phillips (week 3), Austin Thomas (week 8) and Nick Polk (week 9) were all lost to ACL injuries.  The Hoosiers lose Phillips and safety Joe Kleinsmith to graduation but Thomas, Polk and Jerimy Finch are healthy and ready to go.  IU has also moved the talented Ray Fisher to cornerback.  They have six secondary players with starting experience and if the front-four can get pressure on the opposing quarterback, these guys could make some big plays.  

Cornerbacks

-Chris Adkins- Redshirt Sophomore- 6'1", 186 lbs. from Warren Central High School in Indianapolis

Adkins started 12 games as a redshirt freshman last season.  He had 54 tackles and was the most consistent corner on the squad.  Adkins is a solid tackler that is pretty good in coverage.  His 6'1" frame gives him pretty good size for a corner.  Adkins will probably be a four-year starter as a Hoosier and his future is very bright.  

-Ray Fisher- Senior, 5'9", 185 lbs. from Cleveland, OH

Fisher started 19 games at wideout and was known as "Big Play Ray".  He played cornerback in high school and the depth at WR allowed the coaching staff to move him to cornerback in the spring.  Fisher is a very good athlete and should be fine in coverage.  I am skeptical that he can be a good tackler, we'll see.

-Donnell Jones- Sophomore, 5'10", 210 lbs. from St. Petersburg, Florida

Jones started 2 games as a redshirt freshman.  I like the 210-pound frame.

-Richard Council- Junior, 6'1", 201 lbs. from Carrollton, Texas

Council is a rare Hoosier from Texas.  He had 7 starts last season.  He had 45 tackles and broke up 9 passes.  Council and Jones will both get plenty of snaps in nickel and dime packages.

Strong Safety

-Austin Thomas- Senior- 6'2", 221 lbs. from Woodstock, Georgia

Thomas has started 23 games in his IU career.  That includes 5 starts and 41 tackles last season before he tore his ACL.  I love watching Thomas play and according to Coach Lynch, the leader of the secondary is 100% healthy.

-Jarrell Drane- Sophomore- 6'2", 197 lbs. from Plantation, Florida

Drane didn't play much last year.  If Thomas gets hurt again, Drane will have to step up.

Free Safety

-Nick Polk- Senior, 6'0", 225 lbs. from Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Polk started his IU career as a WR.  He moved to free safety after his freshman season and has 20 starts on defense.  Polk has over 120 tackles in his IU career.  I love Polk's size and athleticism at safety.  He has bulked up in the offseason which should improve his sometimes shaky tackling.

-Jerimy Finch- Junior, 6'1", 223 lbs. from Warren Central High School (transfer from Florida)

Finch committed to IU during his junior year of high school.  However, he visited the University of Florida and decided to become a Gator.  After a pretty successful freshman season, Finch decided to transfer back to the Hoosier state.  He wasn't cleared to play until last August and the time he missed in spring practice and fall camp was too much to make up.  Finch's contribution was mainly on special teams.  He was injured midway through the year but is healthy now and ready to make an impact.  The 15th ranked safety prospect coming out of high school, it is time for Jerimy Finch to make an impact.

Tomorrow, I will do a brief breakdown of each game on the Hoosiers schedule and offer up my prediction for the 2009-2010 IU football season.  After that, I will move onto the rest of the Big Ten.  A programming note, if you have the Big Ten Network (if you don't...get it!), the Hoosiers will be featured on the Big Ten Football Tour on Monday, August 17 at 10 pm eastern.  I don't know what all will be shown but I imagine we will get a look at some of the team's recent practices and maybe some scrimmage action.  Again, tomorrow is the schedule preview.  Until then, stay vigilant and God bless America.

Not Exactly Linebacker U

Indiana University has not had a marquee linebacker in quite some time.  In recent memory, they have had talented wide receivers, defensive ends and an electric quarterback.  However, you will be hard-pressed to think of a really good linebacker.  The Hoosiers have always stressed speed over size on their defenses.  This is especially true at linebacker.  That has made them very susceptible against opposing team's running attacks.  This season, things might be changing.  IU's starting LB trio weighs in at 231, 236 and 244 pounds.  I don't know how much the increased size will help against the run.  If they don't improve their tackling, all the size in the world won't matter.  

Weak Side Linebacker

-Will Patterson- Senior, 6'1", 236 lbs. from Lawrence North High School in Indianapolis

I went to high school with Patterson so I am little bit biased here.  He was always a really nice guy and someone who worked hard every single day.  He started the first ten games of last season before inuring his knee.  Patterson also had an injured wrist for all of spring practice.  He should be ready to go for the opener.

-Austin Carrington- Senior- 6'0", 223 lbs. from Leesburg, Virginia

Carrington had 28 tackles last year and he plenty of game experience after three seasons in the rotation.  

Middle Linebacker

-Matt Mayberry- Senior, 6'2", 244 lbs. from Darien, Illinois

Mayberry was the leader of this group last season.  He had 89 tackles including 8.5 tackles for loss.  He is not the most physically gifted player but he plays smart and is very important to the success of the defense.

-Darius Johnson- Sophomore, 6'0", 234 lbs. from Detroit, Michigan

Johnson had 13 tackles last season.  The majority of his playing time will come on special teams.

Strong Side Linebacker

-Tyler Replogle- Junior, 6'2", 231 lbs. from Centerville, Ohio

Replogle had a fantastic finish to last season when he took over for Geno Johnson.  He recorded 29 tackles in the last two games, including 19 against Purdue.  Coaches have been raving about Replogle all camp.  

-Chad Sherer- Redshirt Freshman, 6'0", 212 lbs. from Hamilton Heights, Indiana

Sherer needs to put on bulk if he is going to be an effective linebacker in the Big Ten.  

Coach Bill Lynch has said he thinks the linebackers are his best overall unit.  I would disagree with that because of the lack of proven depth.  However, the starting three LBs give IU a solid, veteran unit.

I will finish up my position analysis tomorrow with the defensive backs and safeties.  Also, go to peegs.com and watch the interviews of four of the incoming freshman for the IU Hoosiers basketball squad.  I am going to stay focused on football for now but I won't hesitate to touch on basketball news when it happens.  Jordan Hulls, Christian Watford, Bobby Capobianco and Derek Elston all seem like really good kids.  Again, go to peegs.com to check the interviews out.  Until next time, stay vigilant and God bless America.  

Line of Defense

Indiana is not exactly known for playing tough, physical defense.  Actually, they are not even known for playing decent defense.  The past several seasons have been very frustrating for IU fans and the defense is usually the unit to blame.  I can distinctly remember watching games against physical teams like Wisconsin and Iowa.  Whether it was an opposing running back, tight end or wide receiver, the Hoosier defense could not tackle the ball carrier.  Nothing is more deflating to a defense than having a team run the ball up middle time and time again, gaining five or six yards a carry until they reach the endzone.  

In 2007, Greg Middleton, then a sophomore, set a school record with 16 sacks.  Defensive end cohort Jammie Kirlew had 12.5 tackles for loss (TFL).  In 2008, Middleton fell to 4 sacks.  Kirlew had a very good year with 10.5 sacks and 9 TFL.  The Hoosiers must replace Greg Brown, Ryan Marando and Kevin and Keith Burrus.  That means Deonte Mack needs to step up at one of the tackle spots.  IU has also moved former offensive lineman Jarrod Smith to defensive tackle.  By all accounts, Middleton had a great offseason.  Lynch was quoted as saying that Middleton, "looks like a completely different player."  Indiana is one of two schools to have two players on the preseason watch list for the defensive end of the year award (Oklahoma is the other).  If Middleton returns to form and the defensive tackles are adequate, this is IU's best unit.  In fact, they could be one of the best in the Big Ten.  

Defensive End

-Greg Middleton- Senior, 6'3", 285 lbs., from Indianapolis Pike High School

Middleton was First Team All-Big Ten as a sophomore when he led the NCAA in sacks with 16.  He struggled to deal with double and triple teams last season.  In my opinion, he was not ready to deal with the attention he got after his sophomore season.  He probably did not work as hard as he needed to and his play suffered.  The emergence of Jammie Kirlew should prevent teams from loading up on Middleton and I expect a very strong senior season.

-Jammie Kirlew- Senior, 6'3", 263 from Orlando, Florida.

Kirlew was First Team All-Big Ten last season.  He kind of gets overlooked but he has been one of the best linemen in the Big Ten for two seasons in a row.  I don't see any reason why that won't continue this year.  Middleton and Kirlew form one of the nation's top pass-rushing duos and they should both be on NFL rosters next season.  For now, their job is to make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable in the pocket.

-Erik Thomas- Redshirt Sophomore, 6'4", 265 from Cleveland, OH

-Terrance Thomas- Junior, 6'1", 263 from Detroit, MI

Both of the Thomas' will be given snaps because no defensive linemen can play every down.  They will need to play well because there are not a lot of options behind them.

Defensive Tackle

-Deonte Mack- Junior, 6'3", 286 lbs. from Elkhart, IN

Mack had 10 starts last season and compiled 21 tackles.  Mack needs to be rock solid in the middle of this line.  The talent of the defensive ends should divert some attention away from the interior of this line.  That will open things up for Mack to make some plays.  IU would love to their opponents average yards per carry below 4.0.

-Jarrod Smith- Junior, 6'4", 301 lbs. from Fairborn, OH

Smith was an offensive lineman last season.  He has the size that you desire in a defensive tackle.  We are going to find out if he can tackle like one.

-Nicholas Sliger-RS Freshman, 6'3", 293 lbs. from Cicero, IN

-Larry Black- RS Freshman, 6'2", 312 lbs. from Cincinnati, OH

-Mick Mentzer- RS Freshman, 6'4", 308 lbs. from Fort Wayne Bishop Dwenger High School

Keep an eye on this one.  I have read a couple of articles about how good Mentzer has looked so far in camp.  He might make an impact on the field this season.

Again, I like this defensive line more than any other unit on the team.  The offensive and defensive lines are very important to a team's success.  Tomorrow, we will cover the linebackers.  Until then, stay vigilant and God Bless America.