The Big Ten

The past few years have been pretty rough for Big Ten football.  There have been several high-profile losses in non-conference games and many more in bowl games.  Ohio State has been the only team to be consistently relevant in the national picture.  Penn State was a great story last year but Michigan struggled.  The conference appears to only have two horses and those horses aren't as fast as those from Pac-10, Big 12 or SEC.  There is absolutely no question that the conference is not close to the Big 12 or SEC.  However, the tide may be turning.  Several Big Ten programs are recruiting very well.  Michigan should turn things around very soon and Michigan State and Minnesota have shocked recruiting experts with some of their signings.  

As for this season, I see two teams that are clearly a cut above the rest of the conference.  There is then a group of seven teams that should be very competitive with each other.  The bottom two teams will struggle to escape the basement.  I will run through the conference in reverse order listing the team, returning starters and my projected record.  

11.  Indiana Hoosiers- 15 returning starters (6 0ffense, 9 defense), 3-9 (0-8)

Again, I think Indiana will be a much better team than they were last season.  However, the schedule is much more difficult.  I don't think they will get blown out in very many games like they were last season but it is going to be difficult to get more than 3 or 4 victories.  IU will beat Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Western Michigan before losing their final nine games.  I could see them beating Virginia, Northwestern, Purdue and Illinois.  So, best case scenario is seven wins.  Unfortunately, I think IU ends up in the cellar again.

10.  Purdue Boilermakers- 12 starters (5 offense, 7 defense), 5-7 (2-6)

Joe Tiller retired after a very successful career at Purdue.  Danny Hope takes over after serving as the "coach in waiting" last season.  The Boilers get running back Jaycen Taylor back from a knee injury and Coach Hope plans to rely on the running game more than Tiller.  Fifth-year senior Joey Elliott will start at quarterback.  Elliott has seen some action in his career but he has only thrown for 300 yards.  The schedule is favorable as they avoid Penn State and Iowa.  I think they beat Northwestern and IU to grab two conference wins.

9.  Northwestern Wildcats- 13 starters (5 offense, 8 defense)- 6-6 (2-6)

The Wildcats lost 23 lettermen from last year's 9-4 squad.  Pat Fitzgerald has proven to be an excellent coach but the Cats cannot weather that kind of personnel loss.  A very weak non-conference slate gives them a chance to go bowling but the loss of their quarterback, running back and top three wide receivers means Northwestern will take a step back.  

8.  Michigan Wolverines- 15 starters (10 offense, 5 defense)- 5-7 (2-6)

This is Rich Rodriguez's second season.  They return plenty of talent and have had a year under Rich Rod's offensive system.  They also add two mobile quarterbacks in Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson.  Brandon Minor is the 2nd best running back in the Big Ten and Brandon Graham is an All- Big Ten caliber defensive end.  The Wolverines will be improved but the schedule is really tough.  They don't get Northwestern or Minnesota and two of their home games are against Ohio State and Penn State.  

7.  Minnesota Golden Gophers- 17 starters (9 offense, 8 defense)- 6-6 (3-5)

Tim Brewster is entering his third season.  He has done a tremendous job so far and things should continue to go well because recruiting is going very well.  Adam Weber to Eric Decker is a lethal combo.  I have Minnesota beating Wisconsin, Purdue and Illinois at home in the brand new TCF Bank Stadium.  

6.  Michigan State Spartans- 15 returning starters (7 offense, 8 defense)- 7-5 (4-4)

Coach Mark Dantonio has changed the culture in East Lansing.  MSU used to be very talented but extremely unstable and flaky.  They now have a toughness and swagger that has benefitted them greatly on the field.  The Spartans lost starting quarterback Brian Hoyer.  Keith Nichol and Kirk Cousins are locked in a QB battle and apparently both have impressed.  They also lost Javon Ringer which is cause for concern.  But look closely at his statistics from last season and you will see that he only averaged 4.2 yards per carry.  Edwin Baker and Larry Caper are two talented freshman that should be able to carry the load.  MSU linebacker Greg Jones is the anchor of a talented and improving defense.  I see them winning home games against Michigan and Northwestern and road games at Purdue and Minnesota.  

5.  Illinois Fighting Illini- 13 returning starters (8 offense, 5 defense)- 8-4 (5-3)

The Illini were a very disappointing 5-7 last year.  Juice Williams returns for his senior season and Arrelious Benn is one of the best wide receivers in the country.  Jason Ford and Daniel Dufrene will split the carries in the backfield.  The offense is probably the most explosive in the conference but the defense needs to improve.  I have them losing to Ohio State, Penn State and Minnesota (Ron Zook teams are always due for at least one loss they shouldn't have).

4.  Wisconsin Badgers- 11 returning starters (6 offense, 5 defense)- 9-3 (5-3)

I actually think Illinois is better than the Badgers this year but the Badgers have the better schedule.  Redshirt freshman Curt Phillips is the new quarterback.  He won't be a star but the quarterback play will be better than it has been.  The Badgers probably have the best stable of backs in the conference with John Clay, Zach Brown and Erik Smith.  I also love Garrett Graham, the Badgers senior tight end.  Wisconsin needs to improve or Bret Bielema will find himself on the hot seat.  The Badgers have an easy non-conference schedule and I see them beating Michigan State, Purdue and Michigan in Madison and IU and Northwestern on the road.

3. Iowa Hawkeyes- 14 starters (6 offense, 8 defense) 10-2 (6-2)

They return 14 starters from a team that went 9-4.  Those four losses were by 1, 5, 3 and 3 points.  Shonn Greene is gone but Jewell Hampton is ready to step up.  I think they split four tough road tests losing only at Penn State and at Ohio State.

2.  Ohio State Buckeyes- 12 starters ( 5 offense, 7 defense) 10-2 (7-1)

The Buckeyes lost a lot of talent to the NFL.  They have plenty to plug in though.  Terrelle Pryor was voted the preseason Offensive Player of the Year.  The defense will be stout again.  A few questions that need answered: Do they have a feature running back to replace Beanie Wells?  Can Ray Small, Dane Sanzenbacher and Devier Posey be consistent playmakers?  Will the offensive line play up to their potential?  I think they lose to USC and get beat by Penn State in Happy Valley.

1.  Penn State Nittany Lions- 9 returning starters (5 offense, 4 defense)- 12-0 (8-0)

This Penn State squad is probably not as talented as last year's squad.  They only have nine starters back and they lost a lot of offensive and defensive playmakers.  I have them going undefeated because I like their incoming talent and the schedule is laughably easy.  Iowa and Ohio State are at home and they play Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois in the non-conference season.  Daryll Clark should have been the preseason POY, Evan Royster is the best running back in the conference and they like their new receivers.  Sean Lee is back from a knee injury and he joins Navarro Bowman and Michael Mauti to give the Nittany Lions the country's best linebackers.