The Schedule

In college football, the schedule will often decide conference titles and even national championships.  Who you play and when you play them go a long way in determining a team's record.  There are several teams every year that are more talented or play better than they did the previous season.  However, their schedule may get significantly tougher and they finish with the same record.  An example this season will probably be the University of Miami.  The Hurricanes open the season with a road game at Florida State, home against Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech and home against Oklahoma.  They should be better than last season but they will be hard pressed to add more than a win to their 7-6 record.  I believe the Indiana Hoosiers are more talented and will play much better than they did last season.  However, their schedule is more difficult and they are probably not going to improve much on their 3-9 record.  

I am going to briefly go the Hoosiers schedule.  You will see the date of the game, the opponent and a number.  The number is how winnable I think the game is for IU (1 means IU has a snowball's chance in hell and 10 means IU is close to a lock to win).  I will then give each game a little bit of analysis and eventually predict the Hoosiers record.

September 3- Eastern Kentucky- 9

This is the first Thursday night game in Memorial Stadium history and the Hoosiers will unveil their "new" home.  If you haven't seen the pictures of the renovation, check them out.  The Colonels are an FBS team that went 8-4 last season.  They lost 40-7 to Cincinnati, 37-13 to Western Kentucky and 38-10 to eventual FBS champion Richmond in the playoffs.  Indiana has struggled with FBS opponents before (remember Nicholls State) but I would be absolutely shocked if Indiana did not play well in this opener.  

September 12- Western Michigan- 6 

Indiana is 4-0 all-time against the Broncos and 32-6-2 against current MAC schools.  WMU returns 10 starters from a 9-4 squad.  That's not much but among those ten players are NFL prospect QB Tim Hiller, 2nd-team MAC running back Brandon West, and a veteran offensive line.  The Broncos are picked 2nd in the MAC West.  They could have a very potent offense but they return only three starters on defense.  Their opener against Michigan should tell us a lot.  I expect Indiana to win a pretty close, high-scoring contest.

September 19- @ Akron- 5

IU is 4-1 in their past five away openers.  The Zips were picked to finish second in the MAC East.  Akron returns a veteran QB (Chris Jacquemainn) and a very good duo of wide receivers (Bowser and Jones).  They were 5-7 last year but return nine starters on offense and six on defense.  This game will be only the second contest in the brand new Infocision Stadium.  Again, their opener at Penn State will tell us a lot.  I look at this game the exact same way as the WMU game.  The only difference is that this one is played on the road.  

September 26- @ Michigan- 3

IU has lost 15 straight and 30 of 31 to the Michigan Wolverines.  Their last win in Ann Arbor came in 1969.  IU is 1-16 in the last 17 Big Ten openers.  Everything here points to a loss.  Rich Rodriguez enters his second season after a very disappointing, but not shocking, 3-9 campaign.  The Wolverines return 15 starters and welcome mobile freshman quarterback, Tate Forcier.  Brandon Miner is one of the best running backs in the Big Ten.  Miner will run wild in what will probably be a three-touchdown win for the Maize and Blue.

October 3- Ohio State- 1

Ohio State has won 14 straight over the Hoosiers.  Terrelle Pryor enters his sophomore season as the preseason Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year.  The Buckeyes return 12 starters including seven on defense.  If they can find a way to beat USC on September 12, they will be national title contenders.  If not, the Buckeyes will still be fighting for another Big Ten title.  Either way, this one will be ugly.

October 10- @ Virginia- 4

Al Groh is on the hot seat.  UVA returns only 11 starters from a team that went 5-7 last year.  Talented QB Jameel Sewell returns and Mikell Simpson is a good running back.  This game is wedged in between

 difficult ACC road games at North Carolina and Maryland.  If this game were in Bloomington, I would have IU favored.  However, in Charlottesville, I give the Cavaliers a slight edge.  

October 17- Illinois- 4

IU has three wins against Illinois since 2003.  That is the most against any conference opponent.  This is IU's homecoming game and I could see them giving the Illini a battle.  The good, Illinois returns 13 starters including mercurial quarterback Juice Williams and wide receiver Arrelious Benn.  The bad, they only have 5 starters back on defense and Illinois does not typically play well at Indiana.  The ugly, Ron Zook is their coach.  Illinois is much more talented but I think Indiana will give them a tough game.  

October 24- @ Northwestern- 4

Last year's 21-19 win snapped a four-game losing streak to the Wildcats.  This is the one Big Ten game IU has a chance to win.  Northwestern returns only 5 offensive starters.  I don't have much  faith in Mike Kafka as a quarterback.  If Indiana can keep running back Stephen Simmons in check, they may pull off the upset.  I would be surprised, but if IU were going to win a road game in the Big Ten, this is it.

October 31- @ Iowa- 2

IU is 3-8 in Iowa City including an upset in 2007.  I really like Iowa this season.  Their losses last year were by 1, 5, 3 and 3 points.  They finished 9-4 but could have very easily been 12-1 or 13-0.  They have to replace Shonn Greene but Indianapolis native Jewell Hampton is ready to step up.  IU lost 45-9 last season and this contest will probably look about the same.  

November 7- Wisconsin- 3

IU has lost the last four games against the Badgers by 29 points per game.  Last year's game was absolutely embarrassing.  They allowed 601 yards including 441 on the ground.  I don't expect anything that lopsided this season.  I mentioned that IU's linebackers have bulked up and put on some much needed size.  That will be put to the test against John Clay and the Badgers.  Interesting note, Wisconsin's two safeties were suspended indefinitely which leaves the Badgers with only four returning starters on defense.  IU could score some points and hang in this one for a while.  

November 14- @ Penn State- 1

IU is 0-12 against the Nittany Lions.  In their last three trips to Happy Valley, the margin of defeat is 29 points per game.  PSU lost a lot from last season's squad but they return Darryl Clark, Evan Royster and a very talented defense.  It is always ugly when IU goes to Happy Valley.

November 21- Purdue- 5

IU is 2-10 against the Boilermakers since 1997 including last season's 62-10 blowout.  The 52-point defeat was the largest margin of defeat in the series since 1893.  I thought Bill Lynch could have been fired after the Old Oaken Bucket debacle.  It is impossible to know what position both teams will be in for this finale.  However, it is safe to assume this will be a battle for last place.  PU was 4-8 in Joe Tiller's final season and only return 12 starters.  I'll make one prediction here, Purdue won't score on their first ten possessions this time around.  

Okay, pretty tough schedule.  IU does not play Minnesota or Michigan State this year.  Michigan and Ohio State are back on the schedule.  Best case scenario, IU goes 4-0 out of conference and finds a way to beat Purdue and one other conference foe.  I definitely don't expect that.  If I had to guess, IU will win their first three and drop the rest to finish 3-9.  As I mentioned, they will be better and more competitive but it will be very tough to improve much on their win total.