Indiana at Virginia

This is another critical non-conference game for the Indiana Hoosiers. Games like this have to be won if IU wants to go to their second bowl game in three seasons. IU and Virginia have never met in football and this is a rare non-conference game against a BCS school. The Cavaliers needed to have a good season to save the job of head coach Al Groh. Things could not have gotten off to a worse start as they were dominated at home in a 26-14 loss to William and Mary. William and Mary managed to run the ball for 125 yards and outgained the Cavaliers by over 40 yards. UVA then lost 30-14 to TCU and 37-34 at Southern Mississippi. The Cavaliers were able to upset North Carolina last week in Chapel Hill. That was a very surprising game and probably will serve as a positive for IU. As you can see, the results have not been extremely impressive but this is still an ACC team with some talent and this game is on the road. It will be tough but the Hoosiers have a chance to come away with the win.

Three Keys to Victory
1. Run Willis Run
Virginia has given up an average of 145 rushing yards a game this season. That includes the 125 yards that William and Mary was able to put up. IU's running game struggled against Ohio State but that is going to happen to most of the Buckeyes opponents. I am looking forward to seeing which IU running game shows up for the rest of the season. Was the performance against Michigan an aberration or will they consistently be able to run the ball? I think the Hoosiers need to find ways to get Darius Willis the ball over 20 times on Saturday. Whether that be 25 carries or 18 carries and a few screen passes, I don't care. Just get Willis the ball. The goal for the Hoosiers running attack is 150 yards. A high goal but certainly attainable.

2. Pressure Sewell
Virginia quarterback Jameel Sewell is completing only 51% of his passes and he has thrown 5 picks to only 4 touchdowns. Sewell has run for 81 yards and three scores but he is not the same athlete IU saw last week in Terrelle Pryor. I think the Hoosiers can pressure Sewell into some bad throws and possible turnovers. Kirlew and Middleton have played well so far this year and they could both make a big difference in this one. Sewell will probably not take a lot of sacks but he will force the ball when pressured.

3. Get the ball to Doss
Tandon Doss has been the best player for the Indiana Hoosiers in this 2009 season. Doss is very impressive with the ball. He is physical, shifty and has pretty good speed. We've seen Indiana use him on wide receiver screens, triple option plays, reverses, quick outs and deep balls. With the exception of last week's fumble, good things happen when Doss gets the ball. Another key is the red zone offense. We know it struggled and cost them the game against Michigan. They scored two touchdowns on their only two cracks in the red zone against Ohio State but I need to see red zone efficiency in a close game. Getting the ball to Doss on the option or quick passes has worked fairly well in the red zone and should continue to. Willis and Doss are the best weapons IU has, they need to use them as often as possible.

Prediction
Like I said before, this game is critical to IU's postseason hopes. If they can win this game, they improve to 4-2 and only need to find two Big Ten wins to make a bowl game. If you have seen some of the Big Ten teams play, you know that is possible. Illinois looks like a dumpster fire, Purdue has made several bone-headed plays and they are very beatable, Northwestern is beatable. Fact is, IU has the potential to win at least two of those games. I think Virginia is somewhere in between their loss to William and Mary and their win over UNC. They are a very average team with a coach that will be fired at the end of the season. Indiana will go to Charlottesville and make just enough plays, IU wins 27-20.