Thursday, October 29, 2009

Preview-Contenders and Pretenders

Last weekend's college football action proved one thing to me. I had been thinking it for a couple of weeks but last weekend was the tipping point. There are about ten national title contenders left and all of them are flawed. There are no dominant teams, no great teams, probably no really good teams. Florida struggled to get past Mississippi State, Alabama nearly gave away an unbeaten season against Tennessee, USC gave up 36 points at home to Oregon State, Iowa needed a miracle to beat Michigan State. So, will these giants continue to survive?

3. (5) USC at (10) Oregon- 8:00 on ABC
USC doesn't usually lose in big games. They also don't usually lose more than once in the PAC-10. However, this isn't the same USC we have come to know and hate in the past decade. The Trojans gave up 36 points to Oregon State last Saturday in the Coliseum. The offense looks very good but I am shocked at how porous the defense has been the past couple of weeks. The Oregon Ducks have been smoking hot since their opening loss to Boise State (that doesn't look so bad now does it?). QB Jeremiah Masoli is playing much better and the offense is healthy and revved up. Matt Barkley has been mistake prone and the Ducks have forced 19 turnovers this season. All of this points to a close game. I just think the Trojans find a way to get this game. A loss would knock USC out of the PAC-10 title hunt and until I see it done, I am not picking against the Trojans winning this league. USC by a touchdown.

2. (3) Texas at (14) Oklahoma State- 8:00 on ABC
The Texas Longhorns played their best game of the season last Saturday at Missouri. Colt McCoy got into a rhythm early and torched the Tigers for the second straight season. It was a good sign for an offense that had been struggling. Oklahoma State has recovered from their loss to Houston. However, running back Kendall Hunter is expected to be out again and Dez Bryant is still suspended. That means the Cowboys will be without two of their biggest weapons against a very good Texas defense. I saw the Longhorns shut down Oklahoma and I don't think Oklahoma State's offense will fare much better. McCoy has another big game and the Longhorns win by double digits.

1. (1) Florida vs. Georgia- 3:30 on CBS
The Florida Gators have not been impressive this season. Their only nice victory came over LSU in Death Valley. The Gators have a very good defense and Tim Tebow. However, the offense is lacking any vertical threats and Tebow is having to do too much in the running game. Georgia has been one of the more disappointing teams in the country. They have looked disinterested and uninspired on the field. For some reason, Mark Richt continues to keep an offensive coordinator that can't get his offense going and a defensive coordinator that can't get his team fired up or make simple adjustments during a game. Tennessee ran a playaction boot leg all day and Georgia made him look like Peyton Manning. However, these two teams despise each other and they have similar talent on paper. If there is one game that might yank the Bulldogs from their slumber, this is it. I think Georgia shows up and makes this a game but the Gators will continue to survive and advance. Florida wins on a late Tim Tebow touchdown.

IU vs. Iowa- Noon on the Big Ten Network
For some reason, I have been hearing some chatter that this will be close. I have even heard some talk radio people calling for the upset. It continues to astonish me how little respect people give the Iowa Hawkeyes. This team is 8-0! They are not the most talented team and they don't have a lot of playmakers. But they are well-coached, disciplined, they have a very good defense and they make plays in the clutch. IU is not disciplined, they don't appear to be particularly well-coached, the defense is mediocre, and they are coming off a game where they blew a 28-3 lead. I know Iowa will be playing without their starting running back (Robinson is done for the season) but I don't see Indiana winning in Iowa City. I think it could be close for a while but Iowa will pull away and win by double digits. An upset would be awesome and college football fans would be thrilled to see Iowa out of the national title hunt but I don't see it happening.

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